Climate-related Mobility in Coastal Islands of the Bay of Bengal: An investigation into the interconnections and disparities among governance initiatives

Md Rezwan Siddiqui (2023)

Abstract

Climate change, climatic hazards, and associated environmental and social impacts have consistently influenced human mobility behavior in the coastal islands of the Bay of Bengal in Bangladesh. This region stands out as extremely vulnerable to climate change due to its distinct geographical location and poorly functioning social and economic systems. On a macro scale, housing projects of different categories, improving livelihood and social security, enhancing resilience of the vulnerable are some of the widely practiced approaches taken to address climate-related mobility. This study draws upon empirical evidence gathered during field visits conducted approximately a decade apart (in 2011 and 2023) to provide insights into the following research inquiries: What are the interconnections and gaps between governance initiatives aimed at addressing climate-related mobility at different scales? What changes have transpired in both migration patterns and migration governance over the past decade? As coastal island in the Bay of Bengal is at the forefront of climate change impacts and populace of this islands are facing myriad challenges to adapt to climate change. Therefore, it is worthwhile examine the national climate-mobility strategies in the perspectives of this coastal islands.

Introduction

The record of migration due to climate change is as old as the history of mankind. However, due to recent anthropogenic climate change, this migration is now under serious discussion as it is expected to modify the shape of human societies in a rapid and massive way soon. While the scientific argument for climate change is increasingly confident, the consequences of climate change on human population distribution are still unclear and unpredictable. With many other social, economic, and environmental factors at work, establishing a linear, causative relationship between anthropogenic climate change and forced migration has, to date, been difficult.

Bangladesh already has 6 million climate displaced population and  30 million are at risk to be displaced from the coastal areas of Bangladesh (MoEFCC, GoB 2022a). Approximately 1.6 million people were displaced due to climate related disasters in the last four decades (Nishat and Mukherjee 2013). The livelihood impact of climate change may cause an additional 19.9 million internal migrants by 2050s. (MoEFCC, GoB 2022b). In these circumstances, the government of Bangladesh has recognized the urgency of tacking migration resulting from direct and indirect impacts of climate change (MoDMR, GoB 2021; MoEFCC, GoB 2022b). One of the biggest and ambitious plan National Adaptation Plan aimed to reduce vulnerability of 15 million climate migrants only between 2023 and 2040 (MoEFCC, GoB 2022b).

In the last decade, the most crucial change in mobility governance happened at the national policy level. Almost all national policies recognize and suggest either policy pathways or refer to relevant policies. However, for various reasons (lack of data, lack of communication, lack of capacity etc.), these policies struggle to address and govern climate-related mobility at local level.

Research Methodology

This research draws information from two sources. First, the national policies related to climate change. By analyzing these policies and their appraisals, this paper presents the macro-view of approaches taken to address national climate-related mobility. Additionally, this research draws findings from multiple fieldworks conducted in 2011-12 and in 2023 on the same coastal island (Hatiya) in the Bay of Bengal. Following a qualitative approach, the researcher investigated the research question by interviewing local people, stakeholders, and groups. The results are discussed below.

Result and Discussion

Overview of the mature of climate-related mobility in coastal islands

Before delving into the detail of the concepts and typologies of climate migration, we need to understand two basic premises. First, pure environmental or climate migration does not exist. Second, there are complex multicausality involved (Cundill et al. 2021; Piguet 2022; Nabong et al. 2023; Moore and Wesselbaum 2023). Moreover, climate change is rarely identified by migrants as primary factors of migration (Cundill et al. 2021). When studying climate change as a driver of migration, it is therefore crucial to try to find the linkages between climate change with other direct factors of migration (like Nabong et al. 2023).

From Cundill et al., (2021), we can extract following arguments about the climate related mobility behaviour in context of the study region. Firstly, as like many other regions, climate change can rarely be pinned as the primary factors triggering mobility and immobility. Climate change influences through plenty of others hydrological and meteorological hazards, and at the intersection of diverse of social, economic, and political factors. Secondly, most of the climate migration happen within the national boundary (Ghosh and Orchiston 2022). International mobility behaviours can hardly relate to climate change or any of its associated impacts. Thirdly, we must consider immobility behaviour in conjuncture of mobility, and need to understand that vast range of social factors play such a complex role here, that it is (almost) impossible to find a statistically significant linear relationship between mobility (and immobility) with any of the vulnerability factors. Unlike many other countries, in Bangladesh riverbank erosion is one of the prime factors of human mobility, with high chances of resulting rural-urban migration. Unlike voluntary  migrants, these groups suffer from several vulnerabilities (Moore and Wesselbaum 2023). Permanent migrants mostly move towards the nearby urban locations and are fewer in number compared to temporary migrants. (Moore and Wesselbaum 2023). Instead of, it is effective to examine this issue as a complex system. In their review of the climate migration decision-making factors, Nabong et al., (2023) presented a general, global view of the climate migration system using a loop-diagram depicting. This model identified twenty-one (21) factors which directly and indirectly influence climate change migration. Interaction between major migration factors like financial capital, food security, livelihood, political stability, environmental degradation, resource security etc and migration work as anchors for other migration factors and loops.

National policies are aware of the climate migration issues, however, they are outdated already

The government of Bangladesh formulated National Strategy on Internal Displacement Management (NSIDM) (MoDMR, GoB 2021). This depicts that at national level the government is well informed about the potential risk associated with climate related mobility. This policy is of high quality in the sense that it draws experience and guidance of the international policies and framework, as well as addresses national and local vulnerabilities along with the in-depth analysis of the socio-ecological context. The goals of the NSIDM are to prevent displacement, protect people during displacement, and facilitate durable solutions for migrants.

NSIDM (2021) is exclusively focused on internal migration (due to climate change) with the aim of zeroing climate-induced migration by 2041 (MoEFCC, GoB 2022a). It addresses climate migration both as an adaptation option and a failure to adaptation, with the ultimate goal of reducing migration in the future. However, this policy has few limitations in practical means to integrate climate science and people’s perception of climate risk and resilience with the human mobility scholarship. For example, the program to rehabilitate beggars is claimed to address climate migration issue, which is difficult to connect and therefore measure. Additionally, policy clearly cannot adequately address mobility resulted from slow onset impacts of climate change.

Bangladesh Delta Plan (GED 2018), on the other hand, views climate-migration mainly as a threat to future urbanization. It predicts that migration will increase from climate vulnerable rural areas to cities and will continuously impose burden on cities. This policy (BDP 2100) suggests dealing with climate-related mobility both at the source and destination (urban areas) of the migration, with an emphasis on the latter.

The National Adaptation Plan (2022) addresses the issues of climate-related mobility and the vulnerability of migrants and trapped populations under the six of its goals. It does not have any specific goal addressing mobility. NAP aims to reduce vulnerability of 15 million climate-induced migrants (MoEFCC, GoB 2022b).

The Mujib Climate Prosperity Plan (MoEFCC, GoB 2022a) aims to reduce climate migration through realization of locally led adaptation. According to this policy the government of Bangladesh is shifting their priority towards resettlement initiatives like "Khurushkul Special Ashrayan Project", "Guchchhogram project" to tackle climate-related mobility challenges.

According to (Kisinger and Matsui 2021), the initiatives taken by the government of Bangladesh to address climate-induced displacement across the country can be categorize into four major categories. First, resettling climate-vulnerable populations to cluster villages or shelters. In coastal islands, there have been several of these kinds. However, by no means are these shelters enough to accommodate all the current and future climate-vulnerable populations. The second broad strategy includes skill development through various ministries and institutional arrangements (Kisinger and Matsui 2021). These are supporting strategies. They are prominent in mainland areas, but remote islands are still lagging in seizing this opportunity for various reasons. Although there are a few infrastructures for training, there is a severe shortage of trainers, leaders, entrepreneurs, and most importantly, opportunities for employment in these areas. The social safety net program is mentioned as the third strategy aligning with climate change adaptation. However, these safety net programs cannot address the unique vulnerability of coastal populations arising from climate change. The fourth strategy outlined by Kisinger and Matsui (2021) is strengthening financial mechanisms. Unfortunately, the climate change initiatives are still project dominated projects and there are no projects currently working in these coastal Islands. This is happening for many reasons. The global fund flow has shrunk substantially since the COVID pandemic. National stakeholders are now shifting their focus to tackle emerging challenges like public health, geo-political conflict, and other macro and micro-economic challenges. The governance of climate finance is inefficient (TIB 2017).

Shamim, bike driver, Tamaruddin, Hatiya

Used to live and work in Dhaka (capital of Bangladesh) and Dubai. Returned from Dubai in 2017, and since living with family. Two of his brothers still working in Dhaka. Prefers to live here despite economic hardship. This proves the argument of (McAdam 2012) for international migration ... a strong sense of attachment to land, family, and culture, inhibits movement abroad.”

At the national level, the migration discourse is dominated by age-old theories and narratives. For example, in international literature, climate-related mobility is recognized for both its positive and negative impacts on the origin and destination places, society, economy, and environment. That said, national policies in Bangladesh still highlight the negative notion of climate-related mobility behavior, especially in the destination urban area. Moreover, other sectoral national policies influence human mobility within this expansive region by restricting and allowing access to essential natural resources such as cultivable and homestead land, forests, and open water fisheries.

Improved mobility has changed mobility behavior in coastal islands

Since my visit in 2011-12, a lot has changed in the mobility and commuting system and pattern in Hatiya. For example, back in 2011–12, there was only a once-a-week engine boat to Dhal Char, a remote island in the Bay of Bengal. Now, there is a passenger boat every day connecting it with the nearest islands. Hatiya, on the other hand, was only accessible with ships and infrequent sea-trucks, which depended on tides. The number of ships connecting Hatiya has increased, along with the addition of frequent speed boats and small boats. The internal connectivity has also improved a lot. It cannot be said that the local means of transport are safer, but they are faster, and various means of transportation are readily available.

Back in 2011–12, there was a tendency among the working-age male population to temporarily relocate to mainland towns in search of work. Now, in 2023, this has changed mainly because of two reasons. First, the economy is a lot more vibrant, and there are diverse income opportunities. As a result, temporary relocation is gradually being replaced by daily and weekly commuting. National policies addressing climate-related mobility should acknowledge the impact of improved mobility and communication on migration behavior.

Migration decision is far better informed

Due to increased accessibility to information related to human mobility available through social media and government and non-government agencies, decision-making is better informed now. However, education, economic condition, and social hierarchy still play a key role in determining the accessibility to this information. In 2023, I found that most of the people are aware of their mobility behavior and go through series of decision-making steps to decide whether to migrate or not. Social capital plays an influential in mobility decision, determining migration pattern, destination. Moreover, mobility decision (of any kind) in rural Bangladesh is influenced by society and peers. The national policies recognize the importance of economic capital, however, completely misses to address social capital as a factor for climate-related mobility behavior. National policies need to be updated to improve decision-making process at individual and community level.

Mr Sarwar, Shopkeeper, Boat terminal in Dhal Char

His family used to live in Hatiya but relocated to Dhal Char (far remote) island after losing all lands from river-bank erosion. They moved to Dhal Char because their family and friends were already there. “If I’d have had family-friends living somewhere else, I’d probably relocated there. I felt confident and relatively comfortable living them.”

Jewel, HSC Pass, Jobseeker, Oskhali, Haitya,

“… I went to Korail Slum in Dhaka, stayed for a couple of weeks with the friends and distant relatives. Facebook helped me to connect with them. Got a job as security guard with the help of my friend but did not continue. If I do not get any government job, I’ll probably go back there (Dhaka).”

Linkage between uncertainties of climate change and human mobility behavior at local level is yet to be addressed

Twelve years ago, both Hatiya and Monpura (two neighboring islands in the Bay of Bengal) struggled with the same kind of threats, causing people to migrate or be trapped. The Monpura island now has an improved river-bank protection system. This has removed a lot of uncertainties from people's lives and is now better off than Hatiya. People living in Hatiya express frustration as they don't know when and how climate change is going to impact their lives. Local-level policies and initiatives should now focus on identifying and addressing such uncertainties at the individual and community levels.

Resilience is yet to achieve

The true vulnerability of the remote coastal islands results from socio-economic vulnerabilities, including poor socio-economic conditions, high poverty rates, a high dependency on agriculture, insufficient infrastructure, weak governance, etc., rather than solely from biophysical vulnerabilities (changes in climatic parameters and resulting extreme weather events). Therefore, achieving socio-economic resilience is crucial. The resilience of the island's community has yet to match that of communities in mainland areas. As a result, policies need to prioritize island communities to ensure equity and justice. Furthermore, the resilience achieved so far is at the household level. To effectively tackle climate-related mobility and associated challenges, the populace of the coastal island must achieve resilience as a community.

Lack of Participation in mobility-related policymaking

Lack of participation is identified as one of the major problem for climate governance in Bangladesh (Haque et al. 2012; McAdam 2012; TIB 2017). The same applies to the initiatives addressing mobility challenges. People who intend to migrate or trapped do not have any say in mobility decision-making. These initiatives still follow a top-down approach with ornamental participation at its best.

Although national policies have improved a lot during the last couple of decades to tackle the challenges associated with human mobility, there have been persistent gaps between local-level initiatives and national-level policies (Kisinger and Matsui 2021). In some cases, I'd argue that this gap has widened, especially in remote places like coastal islands.

At local level, mobility discourse is rarely linked with climate change

Although national policies are substantially updated with the aim of tackling climate-related mobility, at the local level, local governance is hardly aware of the issue. Government executives and officials have better knowledge about climate-related mobility compared to them. National-level trainings and capacity-building initiatives in decades have played a key role in empowering government officials. Local elected leaders fail to comprehend the true factors or drivers behind human mobility. As a result, they are unable to link mobility and climate change, and therefore fail to inform national-level decision-making authorities.

One example is that at the local level, the government indirectly influences human mobility within this expansive region by restricting access to essential natural resources such as cultivable and homestead land, forests, and open water fisheries. However, these local-level decision-making processes hardly consider climate change and its associated impact.

Data limitation to inform effective governance

One of the major obstacles for migration governance, both at the national and local levels, is the lack of data about mobility. Local governments have some idea about the trend or pattern of human mobility in and out of the coastal islands but do not have exact numbers. National policies, on the other hand, are rarely data informed. The climate-related mobility data in national policies are mostly drawn from scientific publications, not micro-level or locally generated, hence there are discrepancies.

Conclusion

The process of successful adaptation for climate displacees is complex and multifaceted, requiring comprehensive strategies and support systems. Over the last few decades, extensive efforts have been undertaken by both governmental and non-governmental entities. Despite considerable efforts and advancements in the governance of human mobility at the national level, the translation of these measures to the local level remains limited. The understanding of climate-related migration at the local level is still mediocre and development discourse rarely addresses climate migration. Therefore, the realization of national policies at local level needs to be improved.

References

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